New technologies and the transition of jobs

“Is automation eating away your job?”

“Will robots make you unemployed?”

“Is human intelligence over-rated in front of artificial intelligence?”

Public discourse on the influx of new technologies and their impact on workforce is often dogged by questions such as these – with the conversation often gravitating on the aspect of human jobs lost. The media, on its part, also often puts disproportionate emphasis on this aspect, given the element of alarm and sensationalism it can cause to the human psyche – their ultimate readers/viewers.

But while it is true that most of the new technologies that became mainstream in recent years, such as automation and robotics, focused on doing the physical jobs of the blue-collared working class, say automated assembly lines, the reality is quite complex and one needs to dissect the multiple layers of this debate!

First, one needs to understand that most jobs have multi-faceted elements, and new technologies impact these elements differently. Not every element can be automated – and ergo, eliminated. Elements that are repetitive, predictable, process-oriented and do not require complex judgement or intuition can be automated, not the others. The job still stays, just that the nature of some of the elements may change. Thus, the calls that the advances in new technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and automation will steal all our jobs are over-rated. However, collectively as a society, we should address the issue of bad actors who are using automation to steal workers income).

And how does this affect the humans involved? Yes, for those whose work is entirely fitted into one or more of the impacted elements, the danger of their skills becoming redundant is pressing. Organisations and policymakers need to support this workforce transition to the other elements of that job, as a solution of the first resort. That would entail designing, implementing and funding appropriate training programmes. If that is not possible, they may need support to transition to other sectors or jobs where their core elements are still operating undisturbed. If no solution seems pragmatic, then they may need social support and rehabilitation.

Second, one must also recognize that new technologies are bringing to fruition new types of jobs, which is giving fuel to a new debate – jobs lost vs. jobs created! Capitalising on the new job opportunities would imply pushing the needed skill-creation, training and competency-building, both at the tertiary and vocational levels. In fact, some nations are even incorporating the basic building-blocks of these new skills right from the secondary level, so that their children are better placed to face the future of work once they become youth!

These new jobs cater to a variety of sophisticated applications, but the human element is still inevitable. Of course, which humans would retain that comparative advantage would depend on who is agile and adaptable enough to keep themselves relevant. This is more relevant for the knowledge-based worker – while earlier technologies were seen to impact the physical or process-based roles more, recent innovations are also changing the way knowledge-oriented work is done. Some of this is already being experienced, say jobs related to the development of technologies and innovation, technical support-services, business intelligence, cross-functional knowledge that fit domain and technical expertise together, consultants, etc.

Third, these trends also imply the services sector would see a gradual expansion in many countries, especially where these high-end skills and competencies are more concentrated. As knowledge-based jobs and workers thrive, the demand for several discretionary consumption services increases, which indirectly creates more jobs. Many of these would absorb the workforce that ranks relatively lower on high-end technical skills. Many organisations at the forefront of implementing new technologies end up focusing on new geographies or markets, and this expansion itself results in creating additional jobs.

Whichever the scenario panning out in your country, the local governments and policymakers also have a role, in terms of creating incentives and an enabling ecosystem to push those technologies that have a higher propensity to create new jobs. That can provide a tailwind to balance out the jobs lost vs. jobs created debate.

Such initiatives could include investments in skill-creation and training programmes that prepare the workforce for the new elements and jobs created as a result of new technologies like automation and AI, creating a social-cushion by investing in unemployment insurance that would help people through the job-transition phase or redirecting the federal subsidy programmes to promote technologies that create new opportunities for livelihood for the society at large.

With new technologies like AI picking up across applications and sectors, the chances of further displacement of erstwhile job-elements remains high. With the workforce sharply divided in terms of education, skills, income status and the ability to interpret evolving changes to business-as-usual, there is every chance that rhetoric and conjecture are blown out of proportion.

This makes it all the more imminent to drive information resources that enable diverse people to properly comprehend how new technologies can impact our jobs, what are the new opportunities they throw up and what we need to do to navigate the waves!